Midwest Bias

Misuse of Mauer

Nate — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 22:38:56 +0000

DISCLAIMER: This isn’t a “Fire Ron Gardenhire” post, and nothing you see on this site is. I ragged on him in my last post (months ago, and for the same reason), but despite his awful lineup management, he’s still one of the better managers in baseball. The Twins aren’t likely to fire him anytime soon and it is even more unlikely that they’d hire someone as good to replace him.

A little recommended reading, to better understand what follows.

In Joe Mauer’s career, he’s batted directly behind the following hitters:

Nick Punto (171 games)
Alexi Casilla (93)
Jason Bartlett (62)
Luis Castillo (52)
Brendan Harris (48)
Orlando Cabrera (42)
Denard Span (26)
Matt Tolbert (25)
Luis Rodriguez (24)
Lew Ford (22)
Jason Kubel (12)
Matthew LeCroy (12)
Jason Tyner (11)
Juan Castro (9)
Shannon Stewart (9)
Brent Abernathy (7)
Carlos Gomez (6)
Jacque Jones (6)
Jose Offerman (3)
Mike Lamb (2)
Jeff Cirillo (2)
Bret Boone (2)
Terry Tiffee (1)
Luis Rivas (1)
Glenn Williams (1)
Torii Hunter (1)
Cristian Guzman (1)
Michael Restovich (1)

Broken down by year:

2009
Orlando Cabrera (42)
Brendan Harris (29)
Denard Span (23)
Matt Tolbert (13)
Alexi Casilla (9)
Carlos Gomez (2)
Nick Punto (1)

2008
Alexi Casilla (78)
Nick Punto (20)
Brendan Harris (19)
Matt Tolbert (12)
Carlos Gomez (4)
Denard Span (3)
Mike Lamb (2)

2007
Jason Bartlett (45)
Nick Punto (28)
Luis Castillo (12)
Jason Kubel (9)
Jason Tyner (5)
Alexi Casilla (5)
Jeff Cirillo (2)

2006
Nick Punto (74)
Luis Castillo (40)
Lew Ford (8)
Luis Rodriguez (5)
Jason Tyner (4)
Jason Kubel (3)
Jason Bartlett (1)
Alexi Casilla (1)

2005
Nick Punto (48)
Luis Rodriguez (19)
Jason Bartlett (16)
Juan Castro (9)
Shannon Stewart (9)
Brent Abernathy (7)
Lew Ford (6)
Bret Boone (2)
Jason Tyner (2)
Terry Tiffee (1)
Luis Rivas (1)
Jacque Jones (1)
Glenn Williams (1)
Torii Hunter (1)

2004
Matthew LeCroy (12)
Lew Ford (8)
Jacque Jones (5)
Jose Offerman (3)
Cristian Guzman (1)
Michael Restovich (1)

Thats 28 different hitters, and 49 individual seasons for those hitters. Of those 49, 32 posted a sub-league-average OBP (65%). Use OPS+ (where 100 is league-average) and you have 42 sub-league-average seasons (86%). If you want to narrow the sample to players who started at least 10 games in a season in front of Mauer, you have 17 hitter-seasons. Of those 17, only Denard Span’s 2009 campaign has resulted in an OPS+ over 100. One of seventeen.

Using a fairly crude method, I weighted each hitter’s season according to how many games they started in front of Mauer. For example, Span’s 2009 would be weighted be weighted as such for OBP (.387 * 23 = 8.901), and as (117 * 23 = 2691) for OPS+. In this way, I’ve properly weighted Span’s 23 games in 2009 against Glenn Williams’ 1 game hitting in front of Mauer in 2005 (when Williams had a .452 OBP and 141 OPS+ over 13 games). After adding each hitter’s weighted value, I divided by the total number of games Mauer started, ending up with an average OBP and OPS+ for each season as well as Mauer’s career.

Year	OBP	OPS+	Games	LgAvgOBP
2009	0.309	79.72	119	0.335
2008	0.332	94.93	138	0.336
2007	0.323	78.33	106	0.338
2006	0.347	87.15	136	0.339
2005	0.312	75.16	123	0.330
2004	0.340	96.43	30	0.338
Career	0.326	84.17	652	0.336

Okay, so we can see that Gardy isn’t putting very good hitters in front of the best left-handed hitter in baseball. But why? I’m still not satisfied, lets break it down further.

Here are the 2-hitters when Mauer hits third, usually the weak-hitting middle infield-types that Gardy thinks belong in the 2-hole:

Year	OBP	OPS+	Games	LgAvgOBP
2009	0.289	70.18	87	0.335
2008	0.333	95.40	134	0.336
2007	0.321	77.48	88	0.338
2006	0.348	87.48	135	0.339
2005	0.310	73.35	108	0.330
2004	0.381	113.00	8	0.338
Career	0.324	82.73	560	0.336

And when Mauer’s a 2-hitter, he hits behind, you know, leadoff hitters. You may have heard that leadoff hitters often have high OBPs.

Year	OBP	OPS+	Games	LgAvgOBP
2009	0.364	105.66	32	0.335
2008	0.296	79.00	4	0.336
2007	0.337	82.50	18	0.338
2006	n/a	n/a	0	0.339
2005	0.324	85.25	8	0.330
2004	0.309	78.00	1	0.338
Career	0.346	94.32	63	0.336

So, since most teams put their best hitter in the 3-hole, I wondered how many AL managers have the same philosophy as Ron Gardenhire, sticking a poor-hitting middle infielder in the 2-hole, just because that’s where they belong. Here’s a huge table:

Rank	Year	Team	2-Hitter	OBP	OPS+	Manager
1	2006	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.417	132	Joe Torre
2	2008	BAL	Nick Markakis	0.406	134	Dave Trembley
3	2007	BOS	Kevin Youkilis	0.390	117	Terry Francona
4	2007	DET	Placido Polanco	0.388	122	Jim Leyland
5	2007	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.388	121	Joe Torre
6	2005	TEX	Michael Young	0.385	131	Buck Showalter
7	2007	OAK	Nick Swisher	0.381	127	Bob Geren
8	2007	SEA	Jose Vidro	0.381	109	John McLaren
9	2009	OAK	Rajai Davis	0.377	119	Bob Geren
10	2008	BOS	Dustin Pedroia	0.376	122	Terry Francona
11	2006	TOR	Frank Catalanotto	0.376	111	John Gibbons
12	2009	TEX	Michael Young	0.375	134	Ron Washington
13	2004	BOS	Mark Bellhorn	0.373	107	Terry Francona
14	2006	OAK	Nick Swisher	0.372	125	Ken Macha
15	2009	NYY	Johnny Damon	0.369	127	Joe Girardi
16	2005	DET	Carlos Guillen	0.368	115	Alan Trammell
17	2004	KC	Carlos Beltran	0.367	129	Tony Pena
18	2005	TOR	Frank Catalanotto	0.367	115	John Gibbons
19	2007	TEX	Michael Young	0.366	107	Ron Washington
20	2009	BOS	Dustin Pedroia	0.365	105	Terry Francona
21	2008	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.363	102	Joe Girardi
22	2009	TB	Carl Crawford	0.363	111	Joe Maddon
23	2005	TB	Julio Lugo	0.362	105	Lou Piniella
24	2004	BAL	David Newhan	0.361	113	Lee Mazzilli
25	2009	CLE	Asdrubal Cabrera	0.360	107	Eric Wedge
26	2005	KC	David DeJesus	0.359	114	Buddy Bell
27	2006	TEX	Michael Young	0.356	108	Buck Showalter
28	2008	CLE	Jamey Carroll	0.355	85	Eric Wedge
29	2007	TB	Carl Crawford	0.355	117	Joe Maddon
30	2004	TEX	Hank Blalock	0.355	113	Buck Showalter
31	2008	KC	Mike Aviles	0.354	122	Trey Hillman
32	2009	LAA	Maicer Izturis	0.354	103	Mike Sciosia
33	2004	CLE	Omar Vizquel	0.353	99	Eric Wedge
34	2004	DET	Bobby Higginson	0.353	98	Alan Trammell
35	2006	CHW	Tadahito Iguchi	0.352	97	Ozzie Guillen
36	*2006*	*MIN*	*Nick Punto*	*0.352*	90	*Ron Gardenhire*
37	2004	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.352	114	Joe Torre
38	2008	DET	Placido Polanco	0.350	102	Jim Leyland
39	2004	LAA	Chone Figgins	0.350	103	Mike Sciosia
40	2005	BAL	Melvin Mora	0.348	117	Lee Mazzilli
			League Average	0.348	103
41	2006	TB	Carl Crawford	0.348	113	Joe Maddon
42	2004	OAK	Eric Byrnes	0.347	111	Ken Macha
43	2009	SEA	Russell Branyan	0.347	128	Don Wakamatsu
44	2007	KC	Mark Grudzielanek	0.346	100	Buddy Bell
45	2004	SEA	Randy Winn	0.346	103	Bob Melvin
46	2006	BOS	Mark Loretta	0.345	80	Terry Francona
47	2005	CLE	Coco Crisp	0.345	117	Eric Wedge
48	2007	LAA	Orlando Cabrera	0.345	95	Mike Sciosia
49	2005	OAK	Jason Kendall	0.345	79	Ken Macha
50	2006	BAL	Melvin Mora	0.342	91	Sam Perlozzo
51	2005	CHW	Tadahito Iguchi	0.342	104	Ozzie Guillen
52	2005	SEA	Randy Winn	0.342	100	Mike Hargrove
53	2008	TOR	Marco Scutaro	0.341	87	Cito Gaston
54	2004	TOR	Orlando Hudson	0.341	98	Carlos Tosca
55	2007	CHW	Tadahito Iguchi	0.340	88	Ozzie Guillen
56	2007	CLE	Casey Blake	0.339	101	Eric Wedge
57	*2007*	*MIN*	*Jason Bartlett*	*0.339*	88	*Ron Gardenhire*
58	2008	TEX	Michael Young	0.339	96	Ron Washington
59	2009	CHW	Alexei Ramirez	0.337	89	Ozzie Guillen
60	2009	BAL	Adam Jones	0.335	104	Dave Trembley
61	2005	BOS	Edgar Renteria	0.335	89	Terry Francona
62	2006	LAA	Orlando Cabrera	0.335	91	Mike Sciosia
63	*2008*	*MIN*	*Alexi Casilla*	*0.333*	94	*Ron Gardenhire*
64	2006	KC	Mark Grudzielanek	0.331	90	Buddy Bell
65	2006	DET	Placido Polanco	0.329	80	Jim Leyland
66	2009	DET	Placido Polanco	0.328	90	Jim Leyland
67	2004	CHW	Juan Uribe	0.327	111	Ozzie Guillen
68	2006	CLE	Jason Michaels	0.326	85	Eric Wedge
69	2004	TB	Rocco Baldelli	0.326	100	Lou Piniella
70	2009	TOR	Aaron Hill	0.326	112	Cito Gaston
71	2005	LAA	Darin Erstad	0.325	87	Mike Sciosia
72	2008	SEA	Jose Lopez	0.322	104	Jim Riggleman
73	2005	NYY	Robinson Cano	0.320	106	Joe Torre
74	2008	LAA	Gary Matthews	0.319	77	Mike Sciosia
75	2006	SEA	Jose Lopez	0.319	89	Mike Hargrove
76	2008	TB	Carl Crawford	0.319	87	Joe Maddon
77	2007	TOR	Lyle Overbay	0.315	85	John Gibbons
78	2009	KC	Willie Bloomquist	0.313	81	Trey Hillman
79	2008	CHW	A.J. Pierzynski	0.312	88	Ozzie Guillen
80	*2004*	*MIN*	*Cristian Guzman*	*0.309*	78	*Ron Gardenhire*
81	2007	BAL	Corey Patterson	0.304	80	Dave Trembley
82	*2005*	*MIN*	*Nick Punto*	*0.301*	68	*Ron Gardenhire*
83	2008	OAK	Bobby Crosby	0.296	76	Bob Geren
84	*2009*	*MIN*	*Orlando Cabrera*	*0.277*	74	*Ron Gardenhire*

Sorted by OBP, Orlando Cabrera as a Twin is the worst 2-hitter in the AL in the last 6 seasons. Gardy’s 2-hitters rank 36th, 57th, 63rd, 80th, 82nd, and 84th out of 84.

Same huge table, sorted by OPS+:

Rank	Year	Team	2-Hitter	OBP	OPS+	Manager
1	2008	BAL	Nick Markakis	0.406	134	Dave Trembley
2	2009	TEX	Michael Young	0.375	134	Ron Washington
3	2006	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.417	132	Joe Torre
4	2005	TEX	Michael Young	0.385	131	Buck Showalter
5	2004	KC	Carlos Beltran	0.367	129	Tony Pena
6	2009	SEA	Russell Branyan	0.347	128	Don Wakamatsu
7	2007	OAK	Nick Swisher	0.381	127	Bob Geren
8	2009	NYY	Johnny Damon	0.369	127	Joe Girardi
9	2006	OAK	Nick Swisher	0.372	125	Ken Macha
10	2007	DET	Placido Polanco	0.388	122	Jim Leyland
11	2008	BOS	Dustin Pedroia	0.376	122	Terry Francona
12	2008	KC	Mike Aviles	0.354	122	Trey Hillman
13	2007	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.388	121	Joe Torre
14	2009	OAK	Rajai Davis	0.377	119	Bob Geren
15	2007	BOS	Kevin Youkilis	0.390	117	Terry Francona
16	2007	TB	Carl Crawford	0.355	117	Joe Maddon
17	2005	BAL	Melvin Mora	0.348	117	Lee Mazzilli
18	2005	CLE	Coco Crisp	0.345	117	Eric Wedge
19	2005	DET	Carlos Guillen	0.368	115	Alan Trammell
20	2005	TOR	Frank Catalanotto	0.367	115	John Gibbons
21	2005	KC	David DeJesus	0.359	114	Buddy Bell
22	2004	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.352	114	Joe Torre
23	2004	BAL	David Newhan	0.361	113	Lee Mazzilli
24	2004	TEX	Hank Blalock	0.355	113	Buck Showalter
25	2006	TB	Carl Crawford	0.348	113	Joe Maddon
26	2009	TOR	Aaron Hill	0.326	112	Cito Gaston
27	2006	TOR	Frank Catalanotto	0.376	111	John Gibbons
28	2009	TB	Carl Crawford	0.363	111	Joe Maddon
29	2004	OAK	Eric Byrnes	0.347	111	Ken Macha
30	2004	CHW	Juan Uribe	0.327	111	Ozzie Guillen
31	2007	SEA	Jose Vidro	0.381	109	John McLaren
32	2006	TEX	Michael Young	0.356	108	Buck Showalter
33	2004	BOS	Mark Bellhorn	0.373	107	Terry Francona
34	2007	TEX	Michael Young	0.366	107	Ron Washington
35	2009	CLE	Asdrubal Cabrera	0.360	107	Eric Wedge
36	2005	NYY	Robinson Cano	0.320	106	Joe Torre
37	2009	BOS	Dustin Pedroia	0.365	105	Terry Francona
38	2005	TB	Julio Lugo	0.362	105	Lou Piniella
39	2005	CHW	Tadahito Iguchi	0.342	104	Ozzie Guillen
40	2009	BAL	Adam Jones	0.335	104	Dave Trembley
41	2008	SEA	Jose Lopez	0.322	104	Jim Riggleman
42	2009	LAA	Maicer Izturis	0.354	103	Mike Sciosia
43	2004	LAA	Chone Figgins	0.350	103	Mike Sciosia
			League Average	0.348	103
44	2004	SEA	Randy Winn	0.346	103	Bob Melvin
45	2008	NYY	Derek Jeter	0.363	102	Joe Girardi
46	2008	DET	Placido Polanco	0.350	102	Jim Leyland
47	2007	CLE	Casey Blake	0.339	101	Eric Wedge
48	2007	KC	Mark Grudzielanek	0.346	100	Buddy Bell
49	2005	SEA	Randy Winn	0.342	100	Mike Hargrove
50	2004	TB	Rocco Baldelli	0.326	100	Lou Piniella
51	2004	CLE	Omar Vizquel	0.353	99	Eric Wedge
52	2004	DET	Bobby Higginson	0.353	98	Alan Trammell
53	2004	TOR	Orlando Hudson	0.341	98	Carlos Tosca
54	2006	CHW	Tadahito Iguchi	0.352	97	Ozzie Guillen
55	2008	TEX	Michael Young	0.339	96	Ron Washington
56	2007	LAA	Orlando Cabrera	0.345	95	Mike Sciosia
57	*2008*	*MIN*	*Alexi Casilla*	*0.333*	94	*Ron Gardenhire*
58	2006	BAL	Melvin Mora	0.342	91	Sam Perlozzo
59	2006	LAA	Orlando Cabrera	0.335	91	Mike Sciosia
60	*2006*	*MIN*	*Nick Punto*	*0.352*	90	*Ron Gardenhire*
61	2006	KC	Mark Grudzielanek	0.331	90	Buddy Bell
62	2009	DET	Placido Polanco	0.328	90	Jim Leyland
63	2009	CHW	Alexei Ramirez	0.337	89	Ozzie Guillen
64	2005	BOS	Edgar Renteria	0.335	89	Terry Francona
65	2006	SEA	Jose Lopez	0.319	89	Mike Hargrove
66	2007	CHW	Tadahito Iguchi	0.340	88	Ozzie Guillen
67	*2007*	*MIN*	*Jason Bartlett*	*0.339*	88	*Ron Gardenhire*
68	2008	CHW	A.J. Pierzynski	0.312	88	Ozzie Guillen
69	2008	TOR	Marco Scutaro	0.341	87	Cito Gaston
70	2005	LAA	Darin Erstad	0.325	87	Mike Sciosia
71	2008	TB	Carl Crawford	0.319	87	Joe Maddon
72	2008	CLE	Jamey Carroll	0.355	85	Eric Wedge
73	2006	CLE	Jason Michaels	0.326	85	Eric Wedge
74	2007	TOR	Lyle Overbay	0.315	85	John Gibbons
75	2009	KC	Willie Bloomquist	0.313	81	Trey Hillman
76	2006	BOS	Mark Loretta	0.345	80	Terry Francona
77	2006	DET	Placido Polanco	0.329	80	Jim Leyland
78	2007	BAL	Corey Patterson	0.304	80	Dave Trembley
79	2005	OAK	Jason Kendall	0.345	79	Ken Macha
80	*2004*	*MIN*	*Cristian Guzman*	*0.309*	78	*Ron Gardenhire*
81	2008	LAA	Gary Matthews	0.319	77	Mike Sciosia
82	2008	OAK	Bobby Crosby	0.296	76	Bob Geren
83	*2009*	*MIN*	*Orlando Cabrera*	*0.277*	74	*Ron Gardenhire*
84	*2005*	*MIN*	*Nick Punto*	*0.301*	68	*Ron Gardenhire*

Gardy’s boys look even worse here. ’09 Cabrera and ’05 Punto have the two worst seasons by 2-hitters in the last six years when ranked by OPS+, and none of the six are above league-average. Twins 2-hitters in the last six seasons rank 57th, 60th, 67th, 80th, 83rd, and 84th out of 84 over the last six years.

Mr. Gardenhire, maybe these aren’t the guys you want hitting in front of Joe Mauer. Move him up to the 2-hole, or at the very least put somebody decent in front of him if you insist on keeping him third.

EDIT: Here’s where Harris, Tolbert, and Casilla’s 2009s would fall on the same tables. Along with Cabrera, this group has hit in front of Mauer for 86 of his 87 games in the 3-hole.

79	2008	CHW	A.J. Pierzynski	0.312	88	Ozzie Guillen
80	*2009*	*MIN*	*Brendan Harris*	*0.310*	82	*Ron Gardenhire*
81	*2004*	*MIN*	*Cristian Guzman*	*0.309*	78	*Ron Gardenhire*
82	2007	BAL	Corey Patterson	0.304	80	Dave Trembley
83	*2005*	*MIN*	*Nick Punto*	*0.301*	68	*Ron Gardenhire*
84	*2009*	*MIN*	*Matt Tolbert*	*0.298*	54	*Ron Gardenhire*
85	2008	OAK	Bobby Crosby	0.296	76	Bob Geren
86	*2009*	*MIN*	*Orlando Cabrera*	*0.277*	74	*Ron Gardenhire*
87	*2009*	*MIN*	*Alexi Casilla*	*0.275*	44	*Ron Gardenhire*

74	2007	TOR	Lyle Overbay	0.315	85	John Gibbons
75	*2009*	*MIN*	*Brendan Harris*	*0.310*	82	*Ron Gardenhire*
76	2009	KC	Willie Bloomquist	0.313	81	Trey Hillman
77	2006	BOS	Mark Loretta	0.345	80	Terry Francona
78	2006	DET	Placido Polanco	0.329	80	Jim Leyland
79	2007	BAL	Corey Patterson	0.304	80	Dave Trembley
80	2005	OAK	Jason Kendall	0.345	79	Ken Macha
81	*2004*	*MIN*	*Cristian Guzman*	*0.309*	78	*Ron Gardenhire*
82	2008	LAA	Gary Matthews	0.319	77	Mike Sciosia
83	2008	OAK	Bobby Crosby	0.296	76	Bob Geren
84	*2009*	*MIN*	*Orlando Cabrera*	*0.277*	74	*Ron Gardenhire*
85	*2005*	*MIN*	*Nick Punto*	*0.301*	68	*Ron Gardenhire*
86	*2009*	*MIN*	*Matt Tolbert*	*0.298*	54	*Ron Gardenhire*
87	*2009*	*MIN*	*Alexi Casilla*	*0.275*	44	*Ron Gardenhire*

If you’re not catching what I’m getting at, Joe Mauer has 88 runs batted in while hitting behind those guys. Derek Jeter is not the AL MVP. Joe Mauer is.

Eric Karabell doesn’t know much about Ron Gardenhire

Nate — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:02:25 +0000

From his analysis of how the Cabrera-Ladendorf trade changes (or doesn’t change) Cabrera’s fantasy value:

The Twins have been using Denard Span and Joe Mauer in the first two spots in the batting order, and adding Cabrera’s .318 on-base percentage shouldn’t alter that line of thinking.

LOL.

My AL All-Star Team

Nate — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:33:38 +0000

MLB All-Star balloting closes at 10:59 p.m. CT tonight, prompting Mark Newman of mlb.com to ask three questions:

Will Ian Kinsler hold off Dustin Pedroia at second base?
As of the last AL update on Tuesday, Kinsler held a lead of fewer than 7,000 votes, but over the past 72 hours of exclusive online balloting, Pedroia has received 20 percent more votes than Kinsler.

Will Kevin Youkilis make it four straight years for a Red Sox first baseman to be voted the AL starter?
Yankees rival Mark Teixeira is making a strong bid to end Boston’s run by garnering 17 percent more online votes than Youkilis over the past 72 hours in hopes of closing a 40,000-vote gap.

Can Jacoby Ellsbury leapfrog three players in the scramble to earn the final starting spot in the AL outfield?
The most recent update had Josh Hamilton of Texas leading the way in the bid to join front-runners Jason Bay of Boston and Ichiro Suzuki of Seattle, but over the past 72 hours of online voting, Ellsbury has received at least 16 percent more votes than the other three challengers — Hamilton, Torii Hunter of the Angels and Carl Crawford of the Rays.

Newman’s three queries have one thing in common: the Red Sox. No, I don’t perceive any “east-coast bias” on Newman’s part, as the races at 1B, 2B, and OF are the only close ones on the ballot. I’d rather Newman present 1B as a three-horse race, including Justin Morneau (he’s about as far behind Youkilis as Ellsbury is behind Hamilton) and it’d make more sense to focus on the guy ranked #4 than the guy ranked #6 in the OF voting, but his point is valid – Ellsbury has made up ground on all three.

What bothers me is that fans have deemed Dustin Pedroia, Josh Hamilton and Jacoby Ellsbury worthy of starting in the 2009 All-Star Game. All three are great baseball players. Pedroia was the 2008 AL MVP, Hamilton led the AL in RBI last year, and Ellsbury led the league in stolen bases. This year, however, their performances don’t come close to the competition.

If I had complete control over the selections for the AL All-Star team, here’s who I’d pick:

Catcher
Current Leader: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (.392/.497/.667, 14 HR, 44 RBI)
My Selection: Mauer
Reserves: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians (.313/.393/.523, 14 HR, 57 RBI) and Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels (.295/.370/.514, 10 HR, 29 RBI)

First Base
Current Leader: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (.314/.439/.593, 14 HR, 47 RBI)
My Selection: Youkilis
Reserves: Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners (.298/.394/.596, 19 HR, 40 RBI), Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins (.309/.389/.574, 19 HR, 64 RBI), and Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (.331/.395/.556, 16 HR, 47 RBI)

Second Base
Current Leader: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers (.263/.339/.513, 19 HR, 51 RBI)
My Selection: Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays (.297/.419/.632, 16 HR, 46 RBI)
Reserves: Kinsler and Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays (.301/.341/.504, 19 HR, 56 RBI)

Shortstop
Current Leader: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees (.307/.383/.449, 9 HR, 32 RBI)
My Selection: Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays (.362/.401/.560, 7 HR, 36 RBI)
Reserve: Jeter

Third Base
Current Leader: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays (.297/.377/.558, 16 HR, 63 RBI)
My Selection: Longoria
Reserve: None, though one is included in my “Final Vote” candidates. Cabrera (if Leyland allows) and Zobrist also have experience at 3B, so Longoria wouldn’t have to spend the entire game out there.

Outfield
Current Leaders: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox (.262/.370/.535, 19 HR, 69 RBI), Ichiro Suzuki (.368/.400/.493, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 16/21 SB), and Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers (.240/.290/.456, 6 HR, 24 RBI)
My Selections: Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels (.305/.384/.575, 17 HR, 59 RBI), Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles (.299/.382/.572, 15 HR, 40 RBI), and Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays (.315/.389/.556, 16 HR, 53 RBI)
Reserves: Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox (.294/.361/.565, 18 HR, 48 RBI), Ichiro, and Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins (.308/.368/.543, 13 HR, 42 RBI)

Starting Pitcher: Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals (10-3, 1.95 ERA, 114 K, 18 BB)
Other Starting Pitchers: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays (10-2, 2.56 ERA, 95 K, 14 BB), Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (8-4, 3.54 ERA, 130 K, 35 BB), Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (8-3, 2.54 ERA, 107 K, 32 BB), Edwin Jackson, Detroit Tigers (6-4, 2.49 ERA, 84 K, 29 BB), Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians (4-7, 3.39 ERA, 82 K, 27 BB) and Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox (9-3, 3.67 ERA, 99 K, 34 BB)

Middle Relievers: Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays (27.1 IP, 1-0, 1.98 ERA, 8/9 saves, 28 K, 4 BB) and Matt Wuertz, Oakland Athletics (36.1 IP, 4-1, 2.72 ERA, 2/3 saves, 41 K, 10 BB)

Closers: Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (21/23 saves, 1-1, 1.44 ERA, 39 K, 6 BB), David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (16/17 saves, 2-2, 1.49 ERA, 46 K, 22 BB), Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels (22/25 saves, 0-2, 3.62 ERA, 30 K, 9 BB), and Mariano Rivera (20/21 saves, 1-2, 2.76 ERA, 40 K, 3 BB)

Final Vote Candidates
1B Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (.278/.386/.567, 20 HR, 60 RBI)
1B Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox (.247/.402/.495, 13 HR, 42 RBI)
1B Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays (.238/.365/.550, 23 HR, 55 RBI)
OF Johnny Damon, New York Yankees (.292/.369/.541, 15 HR, 47 RBI)
3B Scott Rolen, Toronto Blue Jays (.333/.394/.494, 6 HR, 30 RBI)

I’d rank them in that order, so my vote would go to Teixeira.

10 pitchers expected to regress

Nate — Tue, 05 May 2009 11:00:03 +0000

As a follow-up to yesterdays post, here are 10 pitchers you might want to “sell high” if you’ve got them on your fantasy team.

The stats don’t include yesterdays games.

Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers (2.13 ERA, 4.38 FIP)
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates (3.72 ERA, 5.92 FIP)
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (3.09 ERA, 5.23 FIP)
Chris Volstad, Florida Marlins (2.67 ERA, 4.75 FIP)
Edwin Jackson, Detroit Tigers (2.25 ERA, 4.26 FIP)
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (1.89 ERA, 3.89 FIP)
Dallas Braden, Oakland Athletics (2.10 ERA, 4.07 FIP)
Scott Richmond, Toronto Blue Jays (2.67 ERA, 4.39 FIP)
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics (4.50 ERA, 6.16 FIP)
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (3.13 ERA, 4.65 FIP)

Other than Cahill and Snell, who you shouldn’t have on your roster under any circumstances, it probably won’t hurt you to keep any of these guys on your team, but you could benefit far more by trading them. One look at the ERAs of Jurrjens, Braden, Millwood, or Jackson will have many fantasy owners drooling. In reality, though, you should expect them to regress. If you can get an established fantasy stud for any of these guys, jump at the chance.

One guy I’m a little confused about what to do with is Chris Volstad. The tall 22-year-old right-hander looks like the real deal, posting a 2.88 ERA in 14 starts last year and starting this year with a similarly stunning 2.67 ERA. He’s certainly not prone to the long ball, which is good, but his 3 HR allowed in 84.1 innings last year was ridiculous and proved unsustainable, as he’s allowed 5 in 30.1 innings this season. He’s improved his K and BB rates, and he won’t continue giving up homers at this rate. Those impressive stats, combined with the fact that he’s not a big name just yet (meaning you probably won’t get as good of a return for him in a deal as you should), make him the one guy on this list that is definitely worth hanging onto.

10 pitchers expected to improve

Nate — Mon, 04 May 2009 19:18:12 +0000

Been a little short on content here lately, but I’ve been busy, so here’s another top ten list that hopefully will be interesting and perhaps help in your fantasy league.

Today I’ll take a look at the ten starting pitchers who can be expected to improve the most, according to the differential between their ERA and FIP. These are the guys whose ERAs look the worst, thanks in part to the small sample size of early-season work.

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox (7.22 ERA, 4.07 FIP)
Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians (7.46 ERA, 4.34 FIP)
Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (7.03 ERA, 3.98 FIP)
Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (6.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP)
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (5.66 ERA, 2.77 FIP)
Vicente Padilla, Texas Rangers (7.43 ERA, 4.85 FIP)
Jose Contreras, Chicago White Sox (8.31 ERA, 5.74 FIP)
Dana Eveland, Oakland Athletics (7.40 ERA, 5.01 FIP)
Chris Jakubauskas, Seattle Mariners (5.76 ERA, 3.56 FIP)
Sidney Ponson, Kansas City Royals (7.16 ERA, 4.97 FIP)

You’ll notice that while Padilla, Contreras, Eveland, and Ponson have outpitched their ERA by quite a bit, their FIPs still aren’t good at all. Their poor pitching doesn’t really come as a surprise.

On the other hand, Jimenez, Beckett, Nolasco, and especially Verlander would make good “buy-low” guys in fantasy leagues. They’re all pretty established pitchers and have pitched better than their ERAs would lead you to believe. I have some concern with Jimenez K/BB rate, an unempressive 24/19, but even in Colorado he doesn’t give up the long ball and he’s struggled with control in Aprils past.

Jose Mijares

Nate — Sat, 02 May 2009 07:57:02 +0000

8 strikeouts in 4 innings. What?

Top 10 individual seasons, by GPA

Nate — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 20:24:44 +0000

If you’ve read many of the posts I’ve made here in the past, you probably know that I think Gross Production Average, or GPA, is one of the best measures of hitting prowess. With that in mind, I thought I’d take a look at the top 10 individual seasons in Twins history, measured by GPA (minimum 2 plate appeances per team game).

1. Rod Carew, 1977 – .345
2. Harmon Killebrew, 1969 – .338
3. Harmon Killebrew, 1961 – .334
4. Chuck Knoblauch, 1996 – .331
5. Harmon Killebrew, 1967 – .323
6. Shane Mack, 1994 – .322
7. Harmon Killebrew, 1970 – .321
8. Bob Allison, 1964 – .320
9. Joe Mauer, 2006 – .320
10. Rod Carew, 1975 – .315

Some things that stick out to me:

Harmon Killebrew shows up 4 times in the top 10, more than any other Twin. He has 3 more appearances in the top 25.
Tony Oliva, Kent Hrbek, and Kirby Puckett are nowhere to be seen. 1971 was Oliva’s top season on the list, ranking 23rd with a .303 GPA (3 spots behind Bobby Kielty’s 2002). Hrbek’s best was 1987, ranking 12th with a .311 GPA, while Puckett’s .305 mark in 1988 was 17th best.
Shane Mack at #6?!?! He killed lefties, and contributed more to those early-90′s teams than we remember.
Justin Morneau’s top season was a .309 GPA in 2006, ranking 14th.
Chuck Knoblauch with the 4th best hitting season of all time for the Twins in 1996, his 1995 season came in at #11 as well.

When not to make your lefty a LOOGY

Nate — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:28:34 +0000

From 2006 to 2008, the Minnesota Twins bullpen employed a pretty effective lefty specialist, Dennys Reyes. Signed to a Minor League contract on February 21, 2006, Reyes didn’t break camp with the club but was called up in late April.

As the newcomer to a solid bullpen, and with a less than stellar track record, Reyes pitched mostly in mop-up duty through the All-Star Break. By then, however, Reyes had proven himself to manager Ron Gardenhire, and began working the Twins out of high-leverage situations – most often with a lefty at the plate. Once the left-handed hitter was dispatched, Reyes would often leave as well, in favor of a right-handed member of a Twins ‘pen that included Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, and Jesse Crain.

Reyes’ transition to the LOOGY role went perfectly, as he finished the year with a 0.89 ERA and the Twins won the AL Central. He held left-handed hitters to a paltry .423 OPS, and he wasn’t bad against righties either, as they managed a .643 OPS against him.

Nathan and Neshek were the ideal replacements for Reyes with a right-handed hitter at the plate. Right-handed hitters could only manage a .430 OPS against Nathan and a .380 OPS against Neshek. Guerrier and Crain also held right-handed hitters below a .700 OPS.

In 2007, Reyes regressed a bit, but still was an ideal LOOGY. He was effective against lefties, holding them to a .673 OPS, but awful against righties, who pounded him to the tune of a 1.009 OPS. Every right-handed pitcher on the staff was far more effective against right-handed hitters.

The next year, Reyes’ last season with the Twins, his platoon split remained significant. While lefties could only manage a dreadful .537 OPS against him, righties managed a mark 265 points higher – .802. Nathan, Crain, and even Boof Bonser and his 5.93 ERA were much more effective against righties.

2009 would be the first year since 2005 that Gardenhire and the Twins would enter without Reyes. Of course, the Twins acquired another pretty effective lefty last year, Craig Breslow. On the surface, Breslow, with his 2.27 career ERA, would be the perfect candidate to step into Reyes’ LOOGY shoes.

Sure enough, Gardenhire seems to have seen it that way as well. Breslow has entered four games in the middle of an inning this year, each time with runners on base and a left-handed hitter at the plate. He has yet to face more than two batters in any of those outings.

That might not be the best way to go about managing this bullpen. Breslow, through no fault of his own, isn’t the perfect LOOGY for the Twins that Gardenhire seems to think he is, for a couple of reasons.

In his career, Breslow has held lefties to an OPS of just .523 – exactly what you’d look for in a LOOGY. He’s been pretty effective against righties as well though, as they have only a .642 OPS against him. He doesn’t need to be lifted when a right-handed hitter approaches the plate.

Also, the current incarnation of the Twins bullpen isn’t near what it was in 2006. Crain and Guerrier are still around, but Crain just found his way onto the DL and Guerrier is coming off a career-worst 2008. Neshek is out for the year while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the club has looked to Luis Ayala and R.A. Dickey to fill the hole.

In his four typical LOOGY outings so far this year, Breslow has been replaced by once each by Crain, Guerrier, Ayala, and Dickey. For their careers, righties are hitting for a .672 OPS against Crain, .678 against Guerrier, .681 against Ayala, and .903 against Dickey, who, as a knuckleballer, fares over 100 points better against lefties.

Each time Breslow was replaced mid-inning, a right-handed hitter was coming to the plate. Ironically, that batter drove in at least one run on all four occasions.

Obviously, I’m not suggesting that Breslow be the only pitcher used out of the Twins bullpen, simply because he’s better against both lefties and righties than any of his colleagues not named Joe Nathan. We have usage issues to think about.

As the acronym – Lefty One Out GuY – would suggest, LOOGYs typically don’t have very long outings, and Reyes was no exception. In 2006 and 2007, Reyes averaged ten pitches per outing. In 2008, he averaged only nine. Through his first six appearances this year, Breslow has averaged just ten pitches per outing as well. In a seven-man bullpen like that of the Twins, when the workload of one pitcher is limited, the workloads of the other six must increase. By using Breslow like any other reliever on the staff rather than as a LOOGY, Gardenhire could lighten some of the burden on the rest of his ‘pen.

If any team should be concerned with lightening the workload of their bullpen, one would think the Twins would be that team. Last year, the Twins lost Neshek to a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The year before, his 74 appearances ranked fifth in the American League. He also appeared in consecutive games 20 times. This year, the Twins have already lost Bonser and Crain to the DL, with Bonser out for the year.

On top of that, Guerrier imploded late last year, likely due to overuse. His 76 appearances led the league, and he was used eight times in eleven days from July 26 to August 5. His ERA was 3.29 entering the fourth game of that stretch. From there to the end of the season, he posted a 10.45 ERA.

Craig Breslow is a very good left-handed reliever, he just shouldn’t be a LOOGY, especially not on this staff. A LOOGY isn’t a bad thing to have when used properly, and Reyes showed that. The Twins would be well-served to realize that Breslow is no Reyes, and the rest of their staff will thank them.

Three in Cleveland

Nate — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:09:24 +0000

After getting swept in the only one-day series I can remember, the Twins head to division rival Cleveland for a 3-game weekend set. The Twins are 7-9, 1.5 games behind the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox atop the division, and a game ahead of the 6-10, cellar-dwelling Tribe. In short, any less than two wins in the series, and the Twins fall into last place.

Despite their cold start to the season, Cleveland still strikes me as the biggest threat to the Twins in the division. Their pitching has been awful, but so has the Twins staff, and it seems pretty clear that Kansas City actually has the best rotation in the division. Their offense, however, with Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Mark DeRosa, Victor Martinez, Shin-Soo Choo, etc. strikes me as the best in the division.

Tonight, the Twins send Nick Blackburn to the hill to face a team that he dominated in four starts last year. He went 3-0, pitching 27.1 innings and allowing just 4 earned runs.

The Indians counter with Fausto Carmona, who continues to search for the form he showed in his brilliant 2007 campaign. After posting a 5.44 ERA last year, he hasn’t bounced back, with a 7.88 mark through his first 3 starts. Jason Kubel is the only Twin with an impressive line against Carmona, going 7-for-15.

Kevin Slowey will face Carl Pavano tomorrow night, while Sunday pits Glen Perkins against Aaron Laffey in a matchup of the clubs’ best starters so far this season.

Finally, a random note: The Twins have trailed in every game this season. In the last ten years, only 4 teams have had longer streaks to begin a season – one of which was the 2006 Twins.

Finding positives from a rough day

Nate — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 03:57:19 +0000

The Red Sox swept the Twins in a day-night doubleheader, outscoring the Twins 17-4. Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano both got roughed up once again, bringing the starting rotation’s combined ERA up to 5.60 and their FIP up to 5.18. However, the day wasn’t completely without bright spots.

First off, we can be thankful that the first game was called in the seventh inning. Really, who needed two more innings of that? All joking aside, the stoppage did save the bullpen some work.

Speaking of the bullpen, they pitched pretty well today. Take out newcomer Juan Morillo, who is very rarely going to see anything other than mop-up work, and the relievers who matter pitched pretty well. The group of Craig Breslow, R.A. Dickey, Matt Guerrier, Luis Ayala, and Jose Mijares threw 5.2 shutout innings, allowing just four hits. Of course, Dickey was bailed out by the rain, but the top four on the set-up man totem pole did pitch pretty well.

The Twins managed six doubles from six different players. Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Nick Punto, Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez all hit two-baggers, and Morneau hit a laser out of the park to center. Morneau, Kubel, and Span each had good all-around days at the plate, and are continuing to show that they are clearly the three best hitters on the team with Mauer out.